Mel Gibson’s “Apocalypto,” from Disney, might have been written off after the devout hyphenate’s recent offscreen antics. The 2006 awards contest also lacks clear front-runners, leaving studios and voters looking toward the glut for possibilities.īut it’s a confusing year. MGM alone will roll out nine films, including “Rocky” and “Home of the Brave.” Many of its pics, including “Miss Potter,” “Factory Girl” and “Bobby,” come from MGM’s output deal with the Weinstein Co. This season, 38 films will roll out in an exclusive or limited platform. 26, before some would-be nominees even open - the count of specialty pics rolling out between the weekend prior to Thanksgiving and New Year’s continues to rise. In reality, though, a year-end bow is unnecessary: Last year’s best picture winner, “Crash,” rolled out in May.ĭespite the early awards season - Oscar ballots are mailed out Dec. This gives long shots hope.įor years, distribution execs have treated holiday dating as standard practice for awards hopefuls. 17, is expected to be a blockbuster, but it could be played out by Christmas. Last year, “Walk the Line” caught a sweet spot and strolled into awards season.ĭespite a surfeit of movies, the last six weeks of 2006 still lack a “Chronicles of Narnia,” “King Kong” or “Lord of the Rings” - a film designed to absorb 3,000-plus screens in a single weekend. While risky, the right December date also offers unique conditions that can create a perfect storm. 19, Paramount will send live-action/animated kidpic “Charlotte’s Web” up against Fox’s family comedy “Night at the Museum.” 15 with pics including “Eragon” and “The Pursuit of Happyness.” On Dec. Two years ago, that market expanded enough to permit a string of hits: “The Incredibles,” “Lemony Snicket,” “The Polar Express,” “The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie” and “National Treasure.” The studio needs to show its talent it believes in the pic and swing for the fences.Īnd in the family-film market, the Christmas multiples can mean millions. Universal faces mixed buzz on “Shepherd,” but it’s a big-budget, Matt Damon/Angelina Jolie vehicle with heavyweight actor-director Robert De Niro. There are usually multiples of 2.5 or 3.” And at Christmas you can have five or eight times the multiples of your opening weekend. “Those are the best 10-12 days of play for the entire year. “We feel pretty confident,” MGM distrib topper Clark Woods says of the scheduling decision. “Rocky” began as a Sony movie with a February rollout, while “Marshall” was an October pic that needed more time in post. “Charlotte’s” and “Night” will vie for families, while “Rocky Balboa” and “We Are Marshall” stake out the feel-good sports pic market.Īt the same time, “The Good Shepherd” wades into a prestige market that will already include the previous frame’s “Venus,” “The Painted Veil,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Good German,” “Home of the Brave” and “Inland Empire.” Phew!īut each film has a different reason for picking the date. Other films have a three-pronged plan: Tap into the heavy holiday audience available over long weekends, quickly rack up big bucks and then get the hell out.īut the fevered pursuit of such rewards turns some weekends into logjams. Prestige pics want to plant their flags and begin building word of mouth for early 2007, when awards season moves into high gear. But while they’re all in the same race, they have different finish lines in their sights. Over the next six weeks, the high-stakes launches range from Oscar hopefuls big and little (“Dreamgirls,” “The Good German”) to broad family fare (“Night at the Museum, “Charlotte’s Web”) to pics with specific demo targets (“The Holiday”).
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